Matches
Events
Creator
Prices
Testnet
AI Model Prediction Accuracy
93.6%
Group Stage
AI Predicted
Due:
Group L · Round 3
06/27 21:00
Panama
3%
-
14%
-
84%
High
England
AI Prediction
England Win
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Group L · Round 3
06/27 21:00
Croatia
79%
-
17%
-
5%
High
Ghana
AI Prediction
Croatia Win
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Group K · Round 3
06/27 23:30
Colombia
40%
-
29%
-
31%
Med
Portugal
AI Prediction
Colombia Win
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Group K · Round 3
06/27 23:30
DR Congo
32%
-
29%
-
39%
Med
Uzbekistan
AI Prediction
Uzbekistan Win
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Group J · Round 3
06/28 02:00
Jordan
2%
-
11%
-
87%
High
Argentina
AI Prediction
Argentina Win
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Group J · Round 3
06/28 02:00
Algeria
23%
-
28%
-
49%
Med
Austria
AI Prediction
Austria Win
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Completed Match Record
AI model Accuracy
93.6%
Group A · Round 3
06/24
Czechia
0
-
3
🎉 Correct Prediction
Mexico
Group B · Round 3
06/24
Bosnia & Herzegovina
3
-
1
🎉 Correct Prediction
Qatar
Group C · Round 3
06/24
Morocco
4
-
2
🎉 Correct Prediction
Haiti
Download the Full "Winning Guide" (PDF)
Download the Full "Winning Guide" (PDF)
Predict Skill
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About The Model
ForeGate 2026 FIFA World Cup Prediction Model
A transparent and explainable statistical model for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Powered by Elo ratings, the Dixon–Coles model, and Monte Carlo simulations. No machine learning black boxes or bookmaker odds are used, ensuring transparency, reproducibility, and verifiability.
Data Sources: Official FIFA squad lists, World Football Elo Ratings, the official FIFA group-stage draw, and international match history from martj42 (CC0). Ratings are updated daily throughout the tournament.
Backtested on approximately 8,000 real international matches, achieving 57–58% accuracy in win/draw/loss predictions with an ECE of approximately 1.6%. Failed predictions are disclosed transparently. No claims are made of outperforming betting markets.
1
Match-Weighted Elo Ratings
Historical performance + calibrated with recent international matches and squad strength.
2
Dixon–Coles Bivariate Poisson Model
Team ratings → Expected goals → Win/Draw/Loss & scoreline probabilities calculated in real-time.
3
Full Monte Carlo Simulation
10,000 seeded simulations → Qualification & championship probabilities for all 48 participating nations.
Data source: World Football Elo (eloratings.net) · Official FIFA 2026 group stage draw · martj42 international match results (CC0).
Data source: World Football Elo (eloratings.net) · Official FIFA 2026 group stage draw · martj42 international match results (CC0).
Partners
Media Support
Risk Disclaimer
The probabilities in this model/report are model outputs, not definitive results. Football matches can be affected by injuries, red cards, weather, rotations, in-game tactics, referee decisions, and other random events. This report is intended for event research, content planning, pre-match discussion, and community education only. It does not constitute betting advice, investment advice, or a guarantee of any outcome or profit. Users should consider the latest schedules, starting line-ups, injuries, and market changes before making their own judgments.